V. O. B. P. (Volcanic Observatories Best Practices-Observatorios Volcanológicos Buenas Prácticas)

VOLCANO OBSERVATORY BEST PRACTICES WORKSHOP: ERUPTION FORECASTING 11-15 September 2011, Erice, Italy Erice, Sicily Risks posed by volcanic eruptions continue to grow as populations near active volcanoes and air traffic over them continue to increase. Meanwhile, there is increasing technical capability of volcano observatories and associated scientists to detect and analyze unrest well in advance of eruption, providing great promise and sometimes the reality that forecasting eruptions can minimize loss of life and property. This capability carries with it the responsibility to construct the best possible procedures to support necessary governmental actions such as evacuating populations and/or restricting travel and commerce. Although scientific understanding of volcanic processes is advancing, the basis for interpretation of monitoring data with respect to near-term hazards remains largely empirical. Critical experience may come first-hand only a few times during the career of an individual observatory-based scientist, but much of the advance in short-term eruption forecasting depends upon relating monitoring observations to volcanic outcomes. It is therefore important that lessons learned be shared internationally, so that a consensus on, and useful guide for, volcano observatory best practices can be developed. Under the aegis of IAVCEI and WOVO, the INGV and USGS are convening the first of what may become a series of volcano observatory best practices (VOBP) workshops. This meeting will focus on the critical theme of forecasting the occurrence of eruptions and their probable impact in the near term, when quick action may be needed. The emphasis will be on presentation and discussion of experiences in forecasting eruptions, both successful and unsuccessful, while leaving extensive discussion of the important underlying science to meetings such as IAVCEI, AGU, and EGU. The objective is to develop synergy among volcano hazards programs and their observatories internationally, so as to more rapidly and broadly advance the field.